The Implications of a Kenyatta-Ruto Presidency in Kenya

Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, both of whom face charges of crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court, (ICC), have declared that they will seek office as president and deputy president in Kenya’s General Elections scheduled for 4th March 2013. The build-up of the Kenyatta/Ruto alliance was signaled by a meeting that took place in Eldoret in January 2011. The previous month, the Prosecutor of the ICC had announced the names of six individuals that he regarded as bearing the greatest responsibility for the violence that followed the disputed results in Kenya ‘s presidential elections of 2007, and against whom he would seek a confirmation of charges before the pre-trial chamber of the court.

During the Eldoret rally, also attended by Kenya’s president, Mwai Kibaki, and a large number of mainly Kikuyu and Kalenjin members of parliament, it was announced that a committee drawn from members of parliament of the two communities would be formed to bring peace between these communities, which had occupied antagonistic positions during the post election violence.

In the months after the Eldoret meeting, there emerged a new working relationship between Kenyatta, Ruto and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, which came to be referred to by detractors as the KKK Alliance , and whose intentions appeared to include an attempt to avoid accountability by Kenyatta and Ruto before the ICC. Throughout January 2011, Musyoka undertook a number of well-publicized foreign trips to convince member states of the African Union to support a deferral, by the UN Security Council, of the Kenyan cases at the ICC under article 16 of the Rome statute. Over time, the working relations between the three morphed into an ever-expanding alliance, which came to be referred to as the G-7 Alliance, because it was supposed to incorporate seven of the leading political lights in Kenyan politics.

As part of the political re-alignment, Ruto, who had been elected on a ticket of the Orange Democratic Movement, (ODM), but from which he had, to all intents and purposes defected, announced in December 2010 that he had joined the United Democratic Party (UDM), a party affiliated with ODM but regarded as articulating Kalenjin interests. There followed a period of rancor within the party with the officials of UDM claiming that. Ruto having come into the party uninvited had then tried to take it over by force. In January 2012, Ruto announced that he had left membership of UDM, bringing an end to a short but acrimonious stay in the party.

The following week, he announced the formation and launch of another political party, the United Republican Party, (URP) through which he said he would now seek the presidency in 2013.

On his part, Kenyatta has been carrying out his political activities under The National Alliance (TNA), a political party whose formation in the year 2000 was unremarkable. After years of dormancy, the party was re-registered in 2008. During a colourful ceremony in April 2012, TNA was rebranded, with Kenyatta formally staking his claim to the presidency.

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